165 Haze Hyde Hollow Rd

Bransford, TN 37022

$154,900C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 2024 · Other · Active · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,498/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax + insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $208/mo
• Annual: $2,494/yr
• Cap rate: 8.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.59%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $43,372

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $208 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (3.3% below list).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $146k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 35/100 on livability (#428 in TN) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sumner County (suburban): math 44% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #12 of 139 in TN (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 1,748 units permitted in Sumner County in 2024 (124 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sumner County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $109k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.