3 Jill Marie Cir

Wallkill, NY 12589

$689,900D-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,510 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Pending · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,900/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,618
• Tax + insurance: −$1,416
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $-2,743/mo
• Annual: $-32,920/yr
• Cap rate: 1.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.04%
• DSCR: 0.24
• 1% rule: 0.42%
• Cash to close: $193,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $690k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-33k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (60.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (58.0% below list).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($669k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $271k (60.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $74k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $69k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#630 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallkill Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #279 of 590 in NY (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Leptondale Elementary School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 464 students, 28% FRL); John G Borden Middle School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #418 of 729 statewide, top 59%, 432 students, 37% FRL); Wallkill Senior High School (math 97% / reading 75%, grade A, #347 of 1,100 statewide, top 32%, 1,004 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$119k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.