2918 Conne Mara Dr

Riva, MD 21035

$500,000D

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 4,168 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,967/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax + insurance: −$794
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$833
• Net cashflow: $-282/mo
• Annual: $-3,382/yr
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.42%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $140,000

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $500k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-282 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $450k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $397k (20.7% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $397k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#214 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Anne Arundel County Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #10 of 24 in MD (top 42%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Monarch Global Academy Pcs Laurel Campus (math 13% / reading 28%, grade F, #341 of 860 statewide, top 40%, 830 students, 53% FRL); Central Middle (math 20% / reading 53%, grade F, #37 of 225 statewide, top 17%, 1,299 students, 19% FRL); South River High (math 70% / reading 77%, grade B+, #30 of 222 statewide, top 14%, 1,649 students, 19% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 28% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Anne Arundel County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 1,303 units permitted in Anne Arundel County in 2024 (299 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Anne Arundel County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.5% in Riva — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.