359 Lake Shore Dr

Pine Bush, NY 12566

$199,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 504 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Active · 176 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $262/mo
• Annual: $3,140/yr
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.64%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $262 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (8.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#480 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pine Bush Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #468 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 11 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (8.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.0% in Pine Bush — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.