2547 State Highway 31

Hubbard, TX 76648

$89,999B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,141 sqft · Built 1967 · SingleFamily · Pending · 196 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,608/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $591/mo
• Annual: $7,094/yr
• Cap rate: 14.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.15%
• DSCR: 2.25
• 1% rule: 1.79%
• Cash to close: $25,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $591 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (8.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#839 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hubbard ISD (rural): math 28% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #506 of 826 in TX (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hubbard El (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 218 students, 68% FRL); Hubbard H S (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 229 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (53%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (8.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.