315 Lower Clifton Rd

Lawrenceburg, KY 40383

$99,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 812 sqft · Built — · Other · Active · 304 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,441/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$533
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $86/mo
• Annual: $1,035/yr
• Cap rate: 12.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.67%
• DSCR: 2.05
• 1% rule: 1.46%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 304 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#288 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Woodford County (town): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #9 of 165 in KY (top 6%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 102 units permitted in Woodford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Woodford County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $51k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $99k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 2.9% in Lawrenceburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 304 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.