1033 Dutchtown Rd

Tracy City, TN 37387

$102,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,185 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,138/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$535
• Tax + insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $283/mo
• Annual: $3,400/yr
• Cap rate: 9.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.91%
• DSCR: 1.53
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $28,560

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $102k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $283 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $102k).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $99k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $705 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $923 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#349 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Grundy County (rural): math 21% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #110 of 139 in TN (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Tracy Elementary (math 15% / reading 25%, grade F, #644 of 952 statewide, top 68%, 297 students, 0% FRL); Grundy County High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #259 of 332 statewide, top 79%, 534 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 72% district-wide (72 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Grundy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grundy County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 0.9% in Tracy City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.