5405 River Ridge Dr

Flushing, MI 48433

$249,999F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,118 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,196/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$417
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-783/mo
• Annual: $-9,397/yr
• Cap rate: 2.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.42%
• DSCR: 0.40
• 1% rule: 0.48%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-783 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (45.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (52.2% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $120k (52.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#140 in MI, #3,431 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Flushing Community Schools (suburban): math 25% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #295 of 540 in MI (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary School (math 25% / reading 41%, grade F, #806 of 1,397 statewide, top 58%, 488 students, 49% FRL); Flushing Middle School (math 25% / reading 44%, grade F, #289 of 493 statewide, top 60%, 642 students, 51% FRL); Flushing High School (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #334 of 713 statewide, top 51%, 1,278 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 32% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $250k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 3.5% in Flushing — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.