Carey V G Plan

Ponchatoula, LA 70454

$283,990F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,130 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 332 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,374/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,663
• Tax + insurance: −$529
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-316/mo
• Annual: $-3,796/yr
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.27%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $88,813

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $284k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-316 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (16.4% below list).
• It's been on market 332 days — a 12% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $237k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#91 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Tangipahoa Parish (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #63 of 98 in LA (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Champ Cooper Elementary School (math 18% / reading 41%, grade F, #333 of 646 statewide, top 54%, 1,126 students, 57% FRL); Ponchatoula High School (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #106 of 265 statewide, top 43%, 2,262 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 73% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 628 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,085 units permitted in Tangipahoa Parish in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tangipahoa County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 332 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?