1379 Track Road Rd

Pelion, SC 29123

$170,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,267/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $-9/mo
• Annual: $-108/yr
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.23%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-108/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (25.5% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#297 in SC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lexington 01 (suburban): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #11 of 80 in SC (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pelion Elementary (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #472 of 597 statewide, top 79%, 611 students, 100% FRL); Pelion High (math 14% / reading 77%, grade D-, #164 of 196 statewide, top 84%, 727 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 30% district-wide (52 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lexington 01 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 1,712 units permitted in Lexington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lexington County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $170k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.