27 Old Wagon Rd

Woodstock, NY 12498

$1,275,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,744 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,852/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,686
• Tax + insurance: −$1,425
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,019
• Net cashflow: $-4,279/mo
• Annual: $-51,346/yr
• Cap rate: 2.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.38%
• DSCR: 0.36
• 1% rule: 0.38%
• Cash to close: $357,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.27M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-51k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $519k (59.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $485k (61.9% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.26M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $485k (61.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $38k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#205 in NY, #3,176 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Onteora Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #288 of 755 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Woodstock Elementary School (math 75% / reading 75%, grade A, #289 of 2,108 statewide, top 15%, 149 students, 40% FRL); Onteora Middle School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #666 of 729 statewide, top 93%, 171 students, 44% FRL); Onteora High School (math 92% / reading 90%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 413 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $1.27M implies a 1721% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.