500 Grand St Unit BGB

New York, NY 10002

$485,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,193/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,543
• Tax + insurance: −$808
• HOA: −$765
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$881
• Net cashflow: $-804/mo
• Annual: $-9,647/yr
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.10%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $135,800

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $485k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-804 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $369k (24.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $419k (13.5% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($478k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $369k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Mark Twain Is 239 For The Gifted And Talented (math 90% / reading 96%, grade A+, #6 of 729 statewide, top 1%, 1,207 students, 44% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,467 units permitted in New York County in 2024 (4,463 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New York County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,193/mo this rent would consume 104% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 7758% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.