69205 Garver Lake Lot 48 Rd

Ontwa, MI 49112

$69,999C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,471/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$475
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $204/mo
• Annual: $2,443/yr
• Cap rate: 9.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.46%
• DSCR: 1.55
• 1% rule: 2.10%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Edwardsburg Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #52 of 540 in MI (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Edwardsburg Primary School (363 students, 41% FRL); Edwardsburg Middle School (math 43% / reading 63%, grade C+, #90 of 493 statewide, top 19%, 643 students, 36% FRL); Edwardsburg High School (math 52% / reading 72%, grade B-, #58 of 713 statewide, top 9%, 815 students, 25% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cass County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 40 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $56k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.