34 3rd St

Savanna, IL 61074

$78,000F

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,532 sqft · Built 1883 · Other · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax + insurance: −$310
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$168
• Net cashflow: $-87/mo
• Annual: $-1,039/yr
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.76%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $21,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath other listed at $78k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-87 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $66k (14.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($800 rent vs $78k).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $66k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#684 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• West Carroll CUSD 314 (rural): math 12% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #498 of 620 in IL (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: West Carroll Primary (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,278 of 2,056 statewide, top 65%, 416 students, 0% FRL); West Carroll Middle School (math 10% / reading 24%, grade F, #460 of 665 statewide, top 72%, 193 students, 0% FRL); West Carroll High School (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #462 of 693 statewide, top 68%, 286 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.3% of price; built in 1883 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 23 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carroll County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 6.4% in Savanna — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1883 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.