2546 Capitola Rd #32

Live Oak, CA 95062

$180,000B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · Built 2008 · Manufactured · Active · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,516/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$300
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $744/mo
• Annual: $8,923/yr
• Cap rate: 11.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.70%
• DSCR: 1.79
• 1% rule: 1.40%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $744 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#197 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, amenities A, commute A; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Live Oak Elementary (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #431 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Live Oak Elementary (352 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 66 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 224 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.8% in Live Oak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate: kitchen appliances — outdated and in need of replacement
• Minor: bathroom shower curtain — dated and in need of replacement