4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,240 sqft ·
Built 2013
· Manufactured
· Active
· 5 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,256/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$944
Tax + insurance
−$119
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$264
Net cashflow
$-70/mo
Annual
$-840/yr
Cap rate
5.83%
Cash-on-cash
-1.67%
DSCR
0.93
1% rule
0.70%
Cash to close
$50,400
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-840/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (6.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (30.2% below list).
Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $126k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (6.4% local appreciation)).
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#186 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
Jefferson Davis County School District (rural): math 14% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #104 of 130 in MS (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 97% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Carver Elementary School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #228 of 375 statewide, top 61%, 260 students, 100% FRL); Jdc Middle School (272 students, 100% FRL); Jdc High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #170 of 197 statewide, top 90%, 387 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools at 100% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP.
Jefferson Davis County population projected at -35% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (6.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-HB4ZEW3MYNG6Y2
· Data 8 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29