2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,506 sqft ·
Built 1985
· Condo
· Pending
· 237 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,486/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$991
Tax + insurance
−$400
HOA
−$726
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$522
Net cashflow
$-153/mo
Annual
$-1,840/yr
Cap rate
5.32%
Cash-on-cash
-3.48%
DSCR
0.85
1% rule
1.32%
Cash to close
$52,920
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $189k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-153 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (14.3% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
It's been on market 237 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $162k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#440 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Murray Middle School (math 45% / reading 43%, grade D, #327 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 616 students, 69% FRL); South Fork High School (math 36% / reading 48%, grade F, #275 of 667 statewide, top 42%, 1,810 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 41% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 588 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
8 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $124k; list at $189k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.1% in Port Salerno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 237 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29