525 Commerce Ave

Carrollton, AL 35447

$69,900B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,190 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,013/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $317/mo
• Annual: $3,807/yr
• Cap rate: 11.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.45%
• DSCR: 1.87
• 1% rule: 1.45%
• Cash to close: $19,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $317 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#404 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pickens County (rural): math 7% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #108 of 129 in AL (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gordo Elementary School (math 21% / reading 52%, grade F, #281 of 627 statewide, top 45%, 558 students, 66% FRL); Gordo High School (math 4% / reading 35%, grade F, #169 of 305 statewide, top 59%, 513 students, 58% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Pickens County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pickens County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $70k implies a 210% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.