303 E 3rd St

Newton, KS 67114

$144,500C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,934 sqft · Built 1890 · SingleFamily · Active · 163 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,617/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$758
• Tax + insurance: −$159
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $361/mo
• Annual: $4,328/yr
• Cap rate: 9.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.70%
• DSCR: 1.48
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $40,460

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $144k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $361 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $144k).
• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $999 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#282 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Newton (town): math 17% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #141 of 169 in KS (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Slate Creek Elementary (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #507 of 684 statewide, top 78%, 267 students, 55% FRL); Chisholm Middle School (math 14% / reading 25%, grade F, #152 of 219 statewide, top 72%, 489 students, 58% FRL); Newton Sr High (math 11% / reading 26%, grade F, #232 of 327 statewide, top 71%, 956 students, 51% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+18.1%/yr); 131 active listings in the ZIP; 148 units permitted in Harvey County in 2024 (13 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $46k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.