171 Hillview Manor Rd

Gilpin, PA 15656

$223,465D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · Built 1946 · SingleFamily · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,379/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,172
• Tax + insurance: −$344
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $-426/mo
• Annual: $-5,116/yr
• Cap rate: 4.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.18%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $62,570

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $223k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-426 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (33.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (38.3% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $138k (38.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Leechburg Area SD (suburban): math 33% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #303 of 539 in PA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Armstrong County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Armstrong County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $182k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.