5034 Maderia Dr

Cinnamon Lake, OH 44287

$264,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,151/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax + insurance: −$303
• HOA: −$62
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $-844/mo
• Annual: $-10,133/yr
• Cap rate: 2.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.66%
• DSCR: 0.39
• 1% rule: 0.43%
• Cash to close: $74,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-844 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (56.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (56.5% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $115k (56.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#431 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Black River Local (rural): math 55% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #278 of 656 in OH (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 61 units permitted in Ashland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ashland County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $142k; list at $265k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.