3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,191 sqft ·
Built 1984
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 55 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,782/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,101
Tax + insurance
−$527
HOA
−$31
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$374
Net cashflow
$-251/mo
Annual
$-3,011/yr
Cap rate
4.86%
Cash-on-cash
-5.12%
DSCR
0.77
1% rule
0.85%
Cash to close
$58,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-251 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (21.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (15.1% below list).
It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $166k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 669 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($122k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-HE46DB65NTP828
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29