2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
990 sqft ·
Built 1987
· Condo
· Active
· 100 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,438/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$729
Tax + insurance
−$175
HOA
−$350
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$302
Net cashflow
$-118/mo
Annual
$-1,410/yr
Cap rate
5.28%
Cash-on-cash
-3.62%
DSCR
0.84
1% rule
1.03%
Cash to close
$38,920
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $139k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-118 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (14.9% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $139k).
It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $118k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#101 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
Pattonville R-III (suburban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #147 of 324 in MO (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Pattonville Sr. High (math 33% / reading 64%, grade D, #147 of 521 statewide, top 29%, 1,893 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $104k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.2% in Maryland Heights — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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