3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,102 sqft ·
Built 1990
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 65 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$975/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$577
Tax + insurance
−$260
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$205
Net cashflow
$-67/mo
Annual
$-802/yr
Cap rate
5.56%
Cash-on-cash
-2.60%
DSCR
0.88
1% rule
0.89%
Cash to close
$30,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-802/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $98k (10.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (11.4% below list).
It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $98k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#532 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
Fort Stockton ISD (town): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #709 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Fort Stockton Apache El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 333 students, 81% FRL); Fort Stockton Middle (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 515 students, 59% FRL); Fort Stockton High (math 27% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 698 students, 71% FRL).
Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10 units permitted in Pecos County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pecos County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-HF6CYZD20NDMAQ
· Data 16 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29