53 Rocky Point Yaphank Rd #28

Rocky Point, NY 11778

$230,000F

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built 1975 · Condo · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,300/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$383
• HOA: −$648
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-420/mo
• Annual: $-5,046/yr
• Cap rate: 4.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.84%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $64,400

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-420 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $227k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#717 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Rocky Point Union Free School District (suburban): math 67% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #152 of 590 in NY (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Frank J Carasiti Elementary School (519 students, 32% FRL); Rocky Point Middle School (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B, #161 of 729 statewide, top 24%, 638 students, 36% FRL); Rocky Point High School (math 93% / reading 70%, grade A, #484 of 1,100 statewide, top 44%, 923 students, 32% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $230k implies a 217% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 2.6% in Rocky Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.