2216 Goulson Ave

Warren, MI 48091

$139,500C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,340 sqft · Built 1952 · SingleFamily · Active · 101 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,616/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$732
• Tax + insurance: −$406
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $139/mo
• Annual: $1,663/yr
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.26%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $39,060

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $964 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in MI, #4,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities D, employment D.
• Fitzgerald Public Schools (urban): math 8% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #503 of 540 in MI (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 11 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $140k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.3% in Warren — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.