815 Beagle Gap Rd

Crozet, VA 22932

$249,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,144/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax + insurance: −$237
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $151/mo
• Annual: $1,811/yr
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.60%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $69,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (13.9% below list).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $214k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#48 in VA, #1,158 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 204 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $249k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.7% in Crozet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.