902 Lincoln St

Pella, IA 50219

$250,000D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,533 sqft · Built 1912 · SingleFamily · Pending · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,649/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$323
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-331/mo
• Annual: $-3,970/yr
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.67%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-331 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (23.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (34.0% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (34.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#6 in IA, #101 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pella Community School District (town): math 85% / reading 85% proficiency, ranked #8 of 289 in IA (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Madison Elementary School (math 82% / reading 67%, grade A, #131 of 616 statewide, top 27%, 490 students, 23% FRL); Jefferson Intermediate (math 80% / reading 85%, grade A+, #16 of 246 statewide, top 8%, 526 students, 19% FRL); Pella High School (math 85% / reading 89%, grade A, #9 of 336 statewide, top 3%, 764 students, 14% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 244 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 122 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $170k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.0% in Pella — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.