3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
924 sqft ·
Built 1976
· Manufactured
· Active
· 129 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,442/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$236
Tax + insurance
−$75
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$303
Net cashflow
$829/mo
Annual
$9,943/yr
Cap rate
28.39%
Cash-on-cash
78.91%
DSCR
4.51
1% rule
3.21%
Cash to close
$12,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $829 ($10k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#115 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living C-, crime F, amenities F.
Greeleyschool District No. 6 In The County Of Weld And Sta (urban): math 15% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #71 of 86 in CO (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Northridge High School (math 13% / reading 36%, grade F, #266 of 381 statewide, top 79%, 1,253 students, 64% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).
Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 28.4% vs local median 3.3% in Greeley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-HGYZSF722YTC8R
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29