2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
780 sqft ·
Built 1981
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 65 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,197/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$236
Tax + insurance
−$88
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$251
Net cashflow
$622/mo
Annual
$7,465/yr
Cap rate
22.88%
Cash-on-cash
59.25%
DSCR
3.64
1% rule
2.66%
Cash to close
$12,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $622 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $42k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $2k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Grasp Academy (math 18% / reading 14%, grade F, #2,130 of 2,144 statewide, top 99%, 271 students, 52% FRL); Joseph Stilwell Middle School (math 31% / reading 33%, grade F, #448 of 571 statewide, top 79%, 612 students, 68% FRL); William M. Raines High School (math 14% / reading 13%, grade F, #616 of 667 statewide, top 92%, 1,217 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 49% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-25 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $12k; list at $45k implies a 260% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 22.9% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($35k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-HJ11KQ729P31J4
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29