427 Haynes St

Lewisburg, TN 37091

$474,900C

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,282 sqft · Built 1928 · SingleFamily · Active · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,490
• Tax + insurance: −$406
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $1,053/mo
• Annual: $12,638/yr
• Cap rate: 8.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.50%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $132,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $475k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $475k).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#284 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marshall County (rural): math 31% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #58 of 139 in TN (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marshall Elementary (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #496 of 952 statewide, top 55%, 388 students, 0% FRL); Marshall Co High School (math 17% / reading 35%, grade F, #117 of 332 statewide, top 37%, 815 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 48% district-wide (48 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 269 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 400 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marshall County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask is 27% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $375k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.6% in Lewisburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.