1911 &1912 Pheasant Ln

Gold Key Lake, PA 18458

$52,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Built 2015 · Manufactured · Active · 411 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,612/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$273
• Tax + insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$327
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $587/mo
• Annual: $7,047/yr
• Cap rate: 19.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.40%
• DSCR: 3.15
• 1% rule: 3.10%
• Cash to close: $14,560

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $52k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $587 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $52k).
• It's been on market 411 days — a 12% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $46k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($360 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#789 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 19.8% vs local median 6.1% in Gold Key Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 411 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Paint — Painted walls show some wear.
• Minor: Siding — Siding shows some discoloration and wear.
• Moderate: Kitchen cabinets — Dated cabinetry and countertops need updating.
• Moderate: Bathroom fixtures — Standard fixtures need updating for a more modern look.
• Moderate: Exterior paint — Siding shows some discoloration and wear.
• Moderate: Landscaping — Natural setting could benefit from some landscaping improvements to enhance curb appeal.