3013 Simpson Rd

Ashland, KY 41101

$109,900C-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,172 sqft · Built 1925 · SingleFamily · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,140/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax + insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $249/mo
• Annual: $2,992/yr
• Cap rate: 9.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.72%
• DSCR: 1.43
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $30,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $110k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#304 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Ashland Independent (urban): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #49 of 165 in KY (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oakview Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #178 of 676 statewide, top 29%, 293 students, 73% FRL); Ashland Middle School (math 29% / reading 45%, grade F, #80 of 217 statewide, top 41%, 687 students, 63% FRL); Paul G. Blazer High School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #76 of 254 statewide, top 34%, 893 students, 54% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Boyd County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boyd County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $110k implies a 402% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 5.2% in Ashland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.