12427 Seminole Rd

Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD 20657

$279,000C

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,983 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,812/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax + insurance: −$405
• HOA: −$48
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $305/mo
• Annual: $3,664/yr
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.69%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $78,120

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $305 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $279k).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#240 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Calvert County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #5 of 24 in MD (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Patuxent Appeal Elementary Campus (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #535 of 860 statewide, top 62%, 712 students, 55% FRL); Mill Creek Middle (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #108 of 225 statewide, top 50%, 446 students, 42% FRL); Patuxent High (math 52% / reading 81%, grade B, #53 of 222 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 19% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 177 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 101 units permitted in Calvert County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 8 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 79% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.7% in Chesapeake Ranch Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.