2178 Thrush Ave Unit J

Oxnard, CA 93033

$131,000B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Built 1976 · Manufactured · Active · 138 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,012/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$687
• Tax + insurance: −$218
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $684/mo
• Annual: $8,209/yr
• Cap rate: 12.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.38%
• DSCR: 2.00
• 1% rule: 1.54%
• Cash to close: $36,680

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $131k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $684 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $131k).
• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $115k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $906 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#905 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A-, health & safety A-, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities D-, commute F.
• Oxnard Union High (urban): math 28% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #220 of 517 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mar Vista Elementary (471 students, 80% FRL); Ocean View Junior High (775 students, 70% FRL); Channel Islands High (math 25% / reading 51%, grade F, #571 of 1,170 statewide, top 49%, 2,643 students, 79% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 31 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 2.5% in Oxnard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.