10118 Little Pond Pl #5

Montgomery Village, MD 20886

$189,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,121 sqft · Built 1968 · Condo · Pending · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,221/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$243
• HOA: −$765
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-249/mo
• Annual: $-2,994/yr
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.63%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-249 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (23.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $146k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#318 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Montgomery County Public Schools (suburban): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #3 of 24 in MD (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Watkins Mill Elementary (math 13% / reading 13%, grade F, #526 of 860 statewide, top 62%, 735 students, 86% FRL); Montgomery Village Middle (math 3% / reading 25%, grade F, #196 of 225 statewide, top 88%, 773 students, 80% FRL); Watkins Mill High (math 20% / reading 51%, grade F, #144 of 222 statewide, top 65%, 1,715 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 26% district-wide (54 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 21% at this address vs 36% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Montgomery County Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 34% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,880 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (2,054 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask is 7812% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $190k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?