1061 Lee Roze Ln

Grants Pass, OR 97527

$45,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,505 sqft · Built 1981 · Manufactured · Pending · 127 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,907/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax + insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $1,199/mo
• Annual: $14,386/yr
• Cap rate: 38.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 114.18%
• DSCR: 6.08
• 1% rule: 4.24%
• Cash to close: $12,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#137 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Grants Pass SD 7 (urban): math 39% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #66 of 183 in OR (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 185 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 223 units permitted in Josephine County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Josephine County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 38.3% vs local median 3.2% in Grants Pass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.