2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,178 sqft ·
Built —
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 3 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,146/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$498
Tax + insurance
−$177
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$241
Net cashflow
$231/mo
Annual
$2,774/yr
Cap rate
9.22%
Cash-on-cash
10.44%
DSCR
1.46
1% rule
1.21%
Cash to close
$26,572
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $231 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in IL, #2,138 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.2%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $60k; list at $95k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.9% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-HNJQBN6410TYWN
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29