1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
671 sqft ·
Built 1973
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 150 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,541/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$650
Tax + insurance
−$207
HOA
−$362
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$324
Net cashflow
$-2/mo
Annual
$-21/yr
Cap rate
6.28%
Cash-on-cash
-0.06%
DSCR
1.00
1% rule
1.24%
Cash to close
$34,720
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $124k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-21/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (0.2% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $124k).
It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $109k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $857 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#261 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: Exterior paint
— Some discoloration on brick
Minor: Roof shingles
— Aged appearance
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29