3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,120 sqft ·
Built 1977
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 9 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,642/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,300
Tax + insurance
−$257
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$345
Net cashflow
$-260/mo
Annual
$-3,116/yr
Cap rate
5.04%
Cash-on-cash
-4.49%
DSCR
0.80
1% rule
0.66%
Cash to close
$69,412
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $248k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-260 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (18.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (33.8% below list).
Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $164k (33.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#82 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Mccluer North High (math 5% / reading 28%, grade F, #487 of 521 statewide, top 93%, 1,136 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 70% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 6.3% in Florissant — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-HPCJYB83BQ022V
· Data 10 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29