4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,774 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 85 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,151/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,546
Tax + insurance
−$492
HOA
−$50
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$452
Net cashflow
$-389/mo
Annual
$-4,666/yr
Cap rate
4.71%
Cash-on-cash
-5.65%
DSCR
0.75
1% rule
0.73%
Cash to close
$82,572
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-389 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (19.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (27.1% below list).
It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $215k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#99 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Bryan Elementary School (math 32% / reading 56%, grade F, #194 of 627 statewide, top 32%, 681 students, 37% FRL); North Jefferson Middle School (math 13% / reading 45%, grade F, #134 of 257 statewide, top 53%, 666 students, 52% FRL); Mortimer Jordan High School (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #114 of 305 statewide, top 38%, 861 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 20% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Jefferson County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-HPDJRE8WQVCWJV
· Data 9 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29