1026 Cardinal Rd

Lemon Grove, FL 33873

$129,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 2006 · Manufactured · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,277/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$199
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $128/mo
• Annual: $1,539/yr
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.23%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (1.7% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#758 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hardee (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #50 of 73 in FL (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wauchula Elementary School (math 48% / reading 50%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 616 students, 75% FRL); Hardee Senior High School (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #411 of 667 statewide, top 62%, 1,403 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 71% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 123 units permitted in Hardee County in 2024 (22 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hardee County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.