5173 Indian Creek Rd

Cleveland, VA 24217

$175,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 2004 · Other · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,216/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $-72/mo
• Annual: $-870/yr
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.77%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-870/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (30.5% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $122k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#553 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Buchanan County Public School District (rural): math 52% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #76 of 131 in VA (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Council Elementary/Middle (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #536 of 1,108 statewide, top 51%, 185 students, 89% FRL); Council High (math 74% / reading 84%, grade A-, #63 of 319 statewide, top 22%, 119 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 62% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Buchanan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Buchanan County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.