3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,125 sqft ·
Built 1928
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 34 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$958/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$199
Tax + insurance
−$105
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$201
Net cashflow
$453/mo
Annual
$5,434/yr
Cap rate
20.59%
Cash-on-cash
51.07%
DSCR
3.27
1% rule
2.52%
Cash to close
$10,640
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $38k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $453 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($958 rent vs $38k).
It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $37k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $262 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#196 in MI, #4,946 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
Flint School District (urban): math 7% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #714 of 760 in MI (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Holmes Stem Middle School Academy (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #420 of 493 statewide, top 86%, 324 students, 90% FRL).
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 20.6% vs local median 11.6% in Flint — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-HPTNP5C0SM19FK
· Data 15 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29