8869 E Ogden Ln

Floral City, FL 34436

$134,500C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,806 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,676/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$705
• Tax + insurance: −$220
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $399/mo
• Annual: $4,789/yr
• Cap rate: 9.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.72%
• DSCR: 1.57
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $37,660

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $134k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $399 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $134k).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $930 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#573 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Floral City Elementary School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 389 students, 71% FRL); Inverness Middle School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 1,017 students, 60% FRL); Citrus High School (math 34% / reading 51%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,503 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.4% in Floral City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.