None

Vermilion, OH 44089

$419,900C+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,040 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Pending · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,362/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax + insurance: −$594
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,756
• Net cashflow: $3,810/mo
• Annual: $45,715/yr
• Cap rate: 17.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.88%
• DSCR: 2.73
• 1% rule: 1.99%
• Cash to close: $117,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $420k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($46k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $420k).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($407k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $407k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in OH, #1,481 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Vermilion Local (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #316 of 656 in OH (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Vermilion Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #670 of 1,584 statewide, top 45%, 534 students, 37% FRL); Sailorway Middle School (math 64% / reading 64%, grade B+, #221 of 654 statewide, top 35%, 507 students, 36% FRL); Vermilion High School (math 44% / reading 53%, grade D, #427 of 781 statewide, top 55%, 674 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,098 units permitted in Lorain County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $248k; list at $420k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $118k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 17.2% vs local median 6.2% in Vermilion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $8,362/mo this rent would consume 139% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.