1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
499 sqft ·
Built 1997
· Condo
· Active
· 9 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,263/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$624
Tax + insurance
−$199
HOA
−$215
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$265
Net cashflow
$-40/mo
Annual
$-481/yr
Cap rate
5.89%
Cash-on-cash
-1.44%
DSCR
0.94
1% rule
1.06%
Cash to close
$33,320
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $119k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-481/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $112k (6.0% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $112k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Chet'S Creek Elementary School (math 81% / reading 75%, grade A, #149 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 1,095 students, 36% FRL); Kernan Middle School (math 48% / reading 50%, grade C-, #265 of 571 statewide, top 48%, 1,136 students, 47% FRL); Atlantic Coast High School (math 37% / reading 48%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 2,537 students, 35% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 346 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $35k; list at $119k implies a 239% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-HQWMDM4D93N1BQ
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29