3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,755 sqft ·
Built 2025
· Condo
· Active
· 151 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,991/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,311
Tax + insurance
−$204
HOA
−$58
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$418
Net cashflow
$-0/mo
Annual
$-2/yr
Cap rate
6.29%
Cash-on-cash
-0.00%
DSCR
1.00
1% rule
0.80%
Cash to close
$69,997
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $250k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $0 ($-2/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (0.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (20.3% below list).
It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $199k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Blanco Vista El (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 731 students, 58% FRL); Laura B Wallace Middle (math 31% / reading 34%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 789 students, 53% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1820 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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· Data 15 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29