279 Van Siclen Ave

New York, NY 11207

$1,050,000B

None bd · None ba · 3,600 sqft · Built 1925 · MultiFamily · Pending · 315 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $13,248/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,506
• Tax + insurance: −$1,388
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,782
• Net cashflow: $3,571/mo
• Annual: $42,856/yr
• Cap rate: 10.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.58%
• DSCR: 1.65
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $294,000

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $1.05M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($43k/yr) — positive. Per door: $893/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($13k rent vs $1.05M).
• It's been on market 315 days — a 12% lower offer ($924k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $924k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $32k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 254 active listings in the ZIP; 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $1.05M implies a 1515% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.3% rent growth), your $294k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $13,248/mo this rent would consume 281% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 7510% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 315 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?