3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,638 sqft ·
Built 1930
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 48 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,675/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$624
Tax + insurance
−$184
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$352
Net cashflow
$515/mo
Annual
$6,181/yr
Cap rate
11.49%
Cash-on-cash
18.57%
DSCR
1.83
1% rule
1.41%
Cash to close
$33,292
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $115k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $822 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, commute F.
Tyler ISD (urban): math 39% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #449 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: T J Austin El (math 32% / reading 22%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 334 students, 99% FRL); Moore Mst Magnet School (math 46% / reading 39%, grade D-, #553 of 1,662 statewide, top 34%, 1,113 students, 87% FRL); Tyler H S (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,228 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,164 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 66% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 3.6% in Tyler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-HS45A2CGD1M4NB
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29